- Until the financial crisis of 2008/9, interest rates were the gravitational force that kept banking’s integrated deposit-lending model working.
- When that gravity disappeared, powerful waves of disruption and innovation reshaped the industry.
- The return of interest rates has pulled banking into a more predictable and familiar orbit. Deposits and balance sheets suddenly matter again.
A combination of well-established forces and recent developments is reshaping banking. Over the past 17 years low interest rates have acted as a Big Bang in banking. They shattered the industry’s fundamental equation—that deposits drive lending power. For all this time, money has been effectively free and worth very little to banks.
In the absence of that revenue stream, banks shifted their focus from the totality of customers’ financial needs to isolated products that continued to generate fees. At the same time, fintech innovators burst onto the scene, awash with cheap capital and valuing scale over financial returns.
Now that positive rates have returned, the constellation of banking products is drifting into a more familiar and predictable orbit.
Leading banks recognize they need to accelerate change—not only to compete but to find new paths to growth. The five key forces of change that Accenture has identified have helped shape and added impetus to the trends which are likely to have the greatest impact on banking in the year ahead.
Our global banking lead, Michael Abbott, shares his top 10 trends for 2023—and how the return of gravity will change the industry’s trajectory.
Rising rates catalyze product innovation
Rising rates will be the rocket fuel that ignites banks’ product innovation. It will come in the form of offerings similar to that of Amazon Prime.
The renaissance of the branch
Without in-person interaction most banks have struggled to maintain close relationships. 2023 will see a renewed focus on branches.
The metaverse demystifies
Just as mobile did, the metaverse is opening a new world of possibilities. It won’t be without risk—but banks were invented to manage risk.
Right culture, right talent
Talent will make ever-increasing demands on banks’ leadership. If it isn’t given its due, it will become a burning platform.
Risk everywhere
As new risks emerge, banks that focus on helping customers solve their problems, rather than on collections, will outperform their peers.
Data becomes a product
Treating data as a product is a shift in mindset that has the potential to transform the foundations of banking.
Fintechs: from disruptors to enablers
Incumbents are poised to reassert themselves as the “rightful owners of banking”—if they can find fintech-like offerings at reasonable prices.
Green gets real: the search for common ground
Banks can’t deliver net zero on their own—but pressure is rising to address the climate crisis. Consensus will be a priority in 2023.
Life centricity: from journeys to intent
As bigtechs and super-apps continue to grow, banks will look beyond customer journeys to address customers’ holistic well-being.
Core modernization: a change of heart
Tech modernization is a “forever” process. But a convergence of forces will make 2023 the watershed for the start of core modernization.
